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Use the data in PHILLIPS for this exercise. (i) Estimate an AR(1) model for the unemployment rate. Use this equation to predict the unemployment rate for 2004 . Compare this with the actual unemployment rate for 2004 . (You can find this information in a recent Economic Report of the President.) (ii) Add a lag of inflation to the AR(1) model from part (i). Is i n ft-1 statistically significant? (iii) Use the equation from part (ii) to predict the unemployment rate for 2004 . Is the result better

Use the data in PHILLIPS for this exercise. (i) Estimate an AR(1) mo…

Autoregressive ProcessConsider an AR(1) model given by X_t - X... | Filo

Autoregressive ProcessConsider an AR(1) model given by X_t - X... | Filo

5.2K views7 months ago

[36 Marks]a) Derive the forecasting formula for an AR(1) model... | Filo

[36 Marks]a) Derive the forecasting formula for an AR(1) model... | Filo

SOLVED: a.) The width of l-step ahead prediction intervals from fitting an AR(1) model increases as l increases.b.) Yt follows a non-stationary ARIMA(p, d, q) process. Then âˆ‡Yt must be stationary. If false, please explain.

SOLVED: a.) The width of l-step ahead prediction intervals from fit…

SOLVED: OLS estimation of AR(1): Consider the following AR(1) model:Il = 0 pIt-1 â‚¬Generate data from this model. Then estimate the model using ordinary least squares. The estimated p that you will find will be biased. Write a simulation to study this bias. See if you can find the functional form of the bias via simulation.

SOLVED: OLS estimation of AR(1): Consider the following AR(1) mod…

SOLVED: The following AR(1) model has been estimated (standard errors are in parentheses): unemt 1.49 0.742 unemt-1 (0.52) (0.089) n = 55, R2 = 0.566, Ïƒ = 0.999, where unemt is the percentage rate of unemployment at time t, and Ïƒ is the standard error of the regression (or root mean squared error). The unemployment rate was 6.0 in 2003 and 5.5 in 2004. Based on the above equation, find the predicted unemployment rate for 2004. Does the model overpredict or underpredict the actual unemploymen

SOLVED: The following AR(1) model has been estimated (standard erro…

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