Ali Bhanpuri uses the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model to shed light on the 2024 NFL playoff picture. Which team is most likely to unseat the Chiefs atop the AFC? Which division frontrunners are most at risk of losing their leads?

The Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders game wasn’t just important in the NFC East, it has ripple effects throughout the conference.

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen control their destinies in the conference. Plus, the Eagles and Commanders face off Thursday night for the NFC East lead.

Those probabilities range from 99% to less than 1% after the NFL Week 10 games, with the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions currently having the best chance to earn postseason spots and the New York Giants,