Within a decade, it is expected that China will have as many nuclear warheads deployed as the United States. Pentagon estimates suggest that Beijing will have 1,500 operable nuclear weapons by 2035.

China aims to use its nuclear breakout to pierce the rimland barrier without igniting a great-power war. Xi’s ability to dominate the conflict spectrum—from low-intensity political pressure to potential nuclear warfare—has likely emboldened him to sharpen the pressure in this region in recent months.